American Farmland Trust, in partnership with Conservation Science Partners and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, projected how development and climate change will affect agricultural land under several different future scenarios. We mapped potential changes in growing conditions for rainfed croplands, corn, winter wheat and apples between 2016 to 2040 under two potential futures: one where we continue to release high amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere or a future where we act immediately to significantly reduce emissions.

Farms Under Threat 2040: Projected Climate Impacts on the Growing Conditions for Rainfed Agriculture in the Contiguous United States and the accompanying web mapping tool, are designed to show how the emissions-related decisions we make in the next few years change the likelihood that present day crop varieties and production practices will remain viable in a given area by 2040.

Farms Under Threat is American Farmland Trust’s multi-year initiative to document the status of and threats to agricultural land while offering policy solutions to protect that land.